Weekly: red bitcoin, a series about Bankman-Fried, and a wave of layoffs driven by AI

There was no calm this week either. Bitcoin first tried to recover, but quickly returned to the red zone after the Fed meeting. At the same time, new rules for the crypto market are approaching in the United States, in Ukraine there is once again discussion about regulation, and within the industry itself another trend is becoming increasingly visible: companies are massively cutting staff and speaking more openly about betting on AI.

What’s happening with Bitcoin again: a short rise, a hard drop

The week for BTC started quite well. On March 16–17, bitcoin rose to $76,000, and against this backdrop, liquidations of futures positions exceeded $500 million. It seemed that the market was finding at least a short-term recovery, especially since spot bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion from March 9 to March 17.

But this momentum did not last long. Already after the FOMC meeting on March 18, the market cooled sharply. The Fed left the rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, and this time the market reacted not so much to the decision itself as to the regulator’s tone. Investors did not hear any signal of a quick easing of policy, so bitcoin moved down again. On March 19, it dropped below $69,000, and at the time of writing was trading near $68,700.

Large players are accumulating, retail is weakening

According to CryptoQuant, the ratio of whales on exchanges jumped to a six-year high, while the share of retail investors in transactions, on the contrary, dropped to a minimum over the same period.

Large players are more active while the market is weak and retail is less confident. This is not a guarantee of a reversal, but it is definitely a signal worth paying attention to. 

Willy Woo warns: the rebound may turn out to be a trap

On-chain analyst Willy Woo cooled excessive optimism this week. In his opinion, bitcoin may indeed recover to the middle of the $80,000 range, but such a move could very well turn out to be a trap for bulls.

His thesis is simple: the current recovery still does not look like a formed bottom. According to Woo, the market may have gone through only about a third of the bearish cycle. That is, attempts to celebrate every local rebound are still premature.

BTC whales have woken up

There was also interesting activity among large addresses this week. On March 18, an unknown whale sold 1000 BTC for approximately $71.6 million, and this happened right during a short-term market recovery. After that, the price of bitcoin dropped below $70,000 again.

Two days later, an address with 2100 BTC was activated, which had not moved for approximately 13 years and 7 months. At the time of movement, it amounted to more than $147 million. Such awakenings of old wallets always attract attention, as the market begins to wonder: is this just a technical move or preparation for selling.

Quantum threat to bitcoin: panic postponed

Head of research at Galaxy Digital, Alex Thorn, stated that the threat to bitcoin from quantum attacks is more understood than critical right now.

According to him, in theory, quantum computers can break modern cryptographic algorithms, but the greatest risk remains only for addresses with already exposed public keys. At the same time, bitcoin developers have long been working on protection: from quantum-resistant addresses to protocol changes for gradual migration of funds from vulnerable addresses.

Against this background, BTQ Technologies has already integrated a quantum-resistant upgrade into the Bitcoin Quantum test network.

Fraud, theft, and strange stories of the week

Not a day without criminal stories. In the United States, the FBI launched an investigation after discovering malicious software in several games on Steam. According to investigators, attackers used games as a channel to infect devices.

A story from the United Kingdom deserves special attention, where a man filed a lawsuit against his wife, accusing her of stealing 2323 BTC. According to him, she gained access to the funds by recording his actions and monitoring him through cameras. The story sounds like a series: the wife was spying on the husband, and the husband was trying to spy on the wife to gather evidence.

In Los Angeles, a taxi driver was arrested who is suspected of misappropriating more than $2 million in COVID loans. Part of this money, according to investigators, was transferred to Kraken to buy cryptocurrencies. As part of the investigation, nearly 40 BTC and other assets have already been seized.

Another user lost about $1.76 million in USDC after signing a malicious Permit-type transaction. The cause was likely device compromise: the malware could have modified page code or intercepted entered data.

In Ukraine, Kyiv police exposed a crypto pyramid scheme through which investors lost nearly $1 million. The scheme had been operating since 2022 and revolved around a fake token.

And another illustrative case: a user of OKX lost 1 BTC due to confusion with networks in the wallet. This is a good reminder that even on large platforms, interface nuances and incorrect interpretation of an asset can cost very dearly.

The United States is moving toward clearer rules of the game

There was also significant activity in the regulatory field of the United States this week. The SEC published a new interpretation of how federal securities laws should apply to crypto assets. The document was also supported by the CFTC.

The main idea is to separate assets not by the technology itself, but by their economic nature. Roughly speaking, bitcoin and Ethereum are one class, NFTs and memecoins are another, stablecoins are separate, utility tokens are separate, and digital securities are another category. For the market, this is important because such logic looks much clearer than chaotic attempts to fit everything into one template.

At the same time, movement continues in the US Senate around the CLARITY Act. Chairman of the Banking Committee Tim Scott stated that a real proposal regarding the structure of the crypto market may appear in the near future. Politico also reported that senators reached a “principled agreement” with the White House regarding the future of crypto legislation.

If this agreement действительно unlocks the bill, the market will receive what it has long been waiting for: at least some understandable framework instead of constant regulatory uncertainty.

Against this background, Citigroup revised its 12-month forecast for bitcoin and Ethereum: new targets are $112,000 for BTC and $3,175 for ETH. But along with the optimistic scenario, the bank also presented a bearish one: a drop to $58,000 and $1,198 respectively. The explanation is the same — delays in regulatory changes in the United States.

In Ukraine, discussions about crypto rules resume

On March 16, the International IDEA forum was held in Kyiv, where advisor to the National Securities and Stock Market Commission, Vita Forsyuk, outlined the Commission’s approach to regulating the crypto market.

Among the key points: support for the Travel Rule, CARF standards, and restrictions for counterparties linked to Russia. That is, in the Ukrainian context, the focus is not only on formal legalization, but also on security and compliance approaches that have long been standard in the international market.

AI is no longer just a trendy narrative: it can actually take your job

One of the most visible themes of the week: a wave of layoffs amid AI integration.

HSBC, according to Bloomberg, may cut up to 20,000 employees, that is about 10% of its staff, if automation and AI implementation plans continue according to the current scenario. Middle and back-office roles are most at risk.

Gemini has already cut about 30% of its team since the beginning of 2026. The company explains this by business transformation, exit from certain markets, and a shift to a flatter operational structure.

Crypto.com also announced AI integration across the entire company and simultaneously reduced about 12% of its workforce. CEO Kris Marszalek stated very directly: companies that do not integrate AI immediately will simply lose.

That means the market has already moved into a new phase at the messaging level. Previously, AI was discussed as a перспективa. Now it is used to justify real layoffs and restructuring of large teams.

OpenAI prepares a new major deal, but other problems are emerging in AI

OpenAI is negotiating with large private funds to create a new enterprise with a potential valuation of $10 billion. The idea is to scale corporate AI solutions for portfolio companies of investment funds, and the potential investment volume is estimated at around $4 billion.

At the same time, OpenAI postponed the launch of an “adult mode” in ChatGPT due to security risks and internal concerns about the consequences of such functionality.

An even more concerning topic: a CCDH report stating that chatbots of leading AI companies can help users plan violent attacks. Researchers claim that some models either directly provided instructions or at least sufficiently useful information for preparing attacks. That is, the discussion about AI safety has not gone anywhere — it is simply becoming less theoretical.

And one more non-obvious point: the WTO warned that prolonged high oil prices could impact the development of the AI industry. The reason is simple — AI critically depends on energy, and more expensive energy makes scaling more costly and slower.

Netflix will produce a series about Sam Bankman-Fried

Crypto also had its pop culture moment this week. Netflix is preparing a series “The Altruists” about Sam Bankman-Fried and Caroline Ellison.

The project will consist of eight episodes, and the story will be presented as a drama about two ambitious young idealists accused of misappropriating $8 billion. The cast includes Julia Garner and Anthony Boyle. In short, the FTX story is officially moving into mass pop culture format.

Kalshi is gaining weight

Prediction platform Kalshi raised more than $1 billion in a new funding round, and its valuation reached $22 billion. Interestingly, this deal nearly doubled the company’s valuation in just a few months.

This is another signal that the market continues to search for new formats of interest in trading, event-based speculation, and products at the intersection of finance, speculation, and technology.

Kursoff’s opinion

The week turned out to be very indicative. Bitcoin once again showed that the market remains sensitive to Fed decisions and is not ready for confident growth without macro support. Large players, meanwhile, are not disappearing — on the contrary, they are becoming even more visible.

Regulation in the US is becoming more structured, Ukraine continues discussing its own framework, and within the industry it is increasingly clear that AI is already affecting not only products but also the number of people in teams.