Weekly: Polymarket ban in Ukraine, 17 years since the first BTC transaction, CLARITY Act pause, and Grok in the Pentagon

Against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s high levels, the spotlight shifted to regulatory decisions, the debate over stablecoin rules in the U.S., a stronger government role in AI, and data showing how fast cybercrime is evolving.

Market: BTC in the 96,000–97,000 range

The crypto market started the week alongside the 17th anniversary of the first Bitcoin transaction: from 10 BTC with no value in 2009 to the 96,000–97,000 range in January 2026. At the time this digest was published, Bitcoin was trading around 95,088.

Sentiment looks moderately positive. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 61, large players continued accumulating, while retail investors more often took profits amid rising tension on social media. At the same time, two opposing views are being voiced: optimists reinforce the long thesis of BTC’s maturity as a macro asset, while pessimists point to long-term security challenges due to the gradual decline in miners’ rewards after halvings and potential attack risks over time.

Ethereum: between systemic risks and rising activity

The week’s focus highlighted a contrast. On the one hand, warnings were voiced about systemic risks in the event of a sharp drop in Ethereum, given the network’s role as a base layer for stablecoins and financial services. On the other hand, the ecosystem itself is showing growing activity: the average daily increase in new wallets exceeded 327,000, and L2 solutions continued to concentrate revenues. At the time of preparing the digest, ETH was around 3,316.

Spot ETFs: institutional caution hasn’t gone anywhere

The start of 2026 remained restrained: from January 5–9, investors withdrew 681 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs and another 68.5 million from Ethereum ETFs. Against this backdrop, analysts increasingly say the current cycle differs from 2020–2021: BTC’s growth is not always accompanied by broad interest across the entire market, and altcoins look structurally weaker. An additional detail: in 2025, the median duration of altcoin rallies shrank to 20 days, and open interest in their futures fell by 55%, reinforcing the picture of capital rotating into BTC and ETH.

Stablecoins: between geopolitics, banks, and payment rails

Stablecoins are increasingly appearing in two roles at once: as a mass-market financial instrument and as an element of the geopolitical agenda. This week’s focus mentioned the use of USDT in the context of Venezuela via the state company PdVSA, as well as the fact that for the population this tool became a hedge against hyperinflation.

At the same time, banks are assessing risks to their deposit base. An estimate was voiced that legalizing interest payments on stablecoins could potentially trigger outflows of up to 6 trillion in U.S. deposits. Meanwhile, infrastructure is accelerating: payment players are rolling out stablecoin payment processing in large networks, institutional platforms are testing new stablecoins as collateral, and issuers are promoting the idea of onchain settlement at the scale of tens of trillions of dollars.

Ukraine: the Polymarket block and a clear signal to the market

In Ukraine, the Polymarket prediction platform was officially blocked by an NCCIR decision due to the lack of a gambling license. Lawyers separately emphasized the risks for users: potential administrative liability and the absence of legal protection in disputes. Additional attention was drawn to platform markets related to the war in Ukraine, which strengthened the arguments in favor of the block.

In parallel, a working group is preparing the virtual assets bill for a second reading within 1–1.5 months, and кадрові signals in the digital sphere are reinforcing the course toward systemic regulation.

U.S.: CLARITY Act put on pause

Despite the process moving closer to consideration, the Banking Committee took a pause to refine the CLARITY Act, a framework bill on crypto market structure. In the discussed version, the logic was: ban yield payments solely for holding stablecoins, but allow rewards for user activity, including transactions, staking, liquidity provision, and governance participation. Delays, criticism from the industry, and the political backdrop reduce the likelihood of swift passage, even if public rhetoric about bipartisan support remains.

AI: Grok in the Pentagon and a nonstop push for generative systems

The week brought news important both for technology and market narratives: the Pentagon plans to integrate the Grok chatbot into its AI systems already this month, alongside Google products in military infrastructure to support operations and analytics. Against this backdrop, the broader trend toward massive investment in compute infrastructure is strengthening: major players are signing multi-year capacity contracts and are estimating hundreds of billions in capital expenditures in 2026.

Security: record losses and a new quality of fraud

By the end of 2025, crypto scammers, according to analysts’ estimates, stole a record 17 billion. The biggest contribution came from impersonation fraud, which increased by 1,400% over the year. The average payment in such schemes rose from 782 to 2,764, and AI-assisted models proved 4.5 times more profitable than traditional ones. This is a clear signal: risks are shifting from crude attacks to industrial-scale social engineering.

Kursoff opinion

This week brought together everything that defines the start of 2026. Regulators are narrowing the gray zone, as the Polymarket case in Ukraine showed. The U.S. is trying to balance innovation and risks in market rules, but even framework initiatives stall on details, as seen in the CLARITY Act pause. And the technology landscape is accelerating so fast that generative models are entering strategic government systems. In such an environment, the winners are not those chasing loud headlines, but those who keep discipline, understand regulatory frameworks, and do not underestimate security.