Weekly: strikes on Iran, the conflict around Anthropic, and a quick look at the state of the market

The crypto market is highly dependent on the external backdrop. The spotlight was on the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, a new stage in the conflict around AI company Anthropic, the Kalshi betting story, and another wave of discussions around major crypto platforms. All of this came on top of a market that already looked exhausted after several months of pressure.

Bitcoin: the market is looking for support after a prolonged decline

The situation remains difficult for Bitcoin. The asset has been showing negative performance for several months in a row, which is uncommon for BTC. That is why the market is now in a state where any upward move immediately raises the question: is this a real reversal or just a short-lived rise.

The technical picture is also mixed. Some indicators are showing oversold levels that have appeared only a few times historically. In previous cycles, such readings often coincided with seller exhaustion. But right now these signals are not operating in a vacuum, because the market keeps receiving new external triggers.

ETFs and the caution of major players

Another indicator of sentiment is the behavior of institutional capital. Over the past few months, several billion dollars have been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. This points to caution among large investors.

At the same time, there has been no complete exit from the market. In some weeks, the funds have again recorded inflows. This looks like a typical phase of uncertainty: capital is not leaving for good, but it is not ready to return aggressively either.

Geopolitics: crypto reacts faster than others

One of the main drivers in the news was the strikes on Iran. Geopolitical conflicts traditionally increase nervousness in financial markets, and crypto reacts to them faster than most assets.

When global risk rises, investors begin cutting positions in volatile instruments. That is why the crypto market often moves more sharply than traditional markets.

But there is another line of thinking. Some market participants believe that escalating conflicts could eventually push central banks to act more softly in order to support the economy. If that happens, more liquidity could appear in the markets — and that would already be a positive factor for crypto.

Anthropic and the politics around artificial intelligence

Another high-profile story unfolded around AI company Anthropic. The conflict between the company and the U.S. authorities became another example of how artificial intelligence is gradually moving into the sphere of big politics.

Stories like this matter for the crypto market as well. Web3 projects are increasingly using artificial intelligence tools — in trading, analytics, and automation. That is why any new rules of the game for AI companies can also affect the blockchain ecosystem.

Kalshi and political betting

The story around the Kalshi platform caused a separate wave of attention. Against the backdrop of news from the Middle East, contracts related to political events in Iran appeared there. When information about the strikes became public, the betting market effectively closed at the last price.

Situations like this spark intense debate. The combination of politics, war, and financial betting quickly becomes a toxic topic that draws the attention of regulators and the media.

Binance and constant regulatory pressure

Another storyline of the week was the new accusations against Binance. The exchange responded to inquiries from U.S. senators regarding possible ties to Iranian structures and stated that these claims are based on unreliable information.

At the same time, a U.S. court dismissed one of the lawsuits against the company. Stories like this have become routine for major players in the industry: the bigger the platform, the stronger the regulatory and political pressure.

Kursoff’s take

Crypto no longer exists in a vacuum. The market reacts not only to industry news, but also to global conflicts, technology policy, and the actions of regulators.

Right now, the main feeling is market exhaustion. Interest in crypto has not disappeared, but participants are behaving more cautiously. In this phase, even secondary news can strongly affect sentiment.

That is why the coming weeks may remain nervous. The market is searching for a point of balance — and until it finds one, any strong headline can quickly swing prices.